A New Xbox by 2010 and Unquestioned Speculation: Now With Questioning!
Filed under: Feature, Game Reviews and Opinion 7 ResponsesBy Ravi Sinha
An interesting rumour increasingly agitates into a conspiracy. If you checked out the news on Microsoft’s X-Engine, then you’ve doubtless heard about Project Phoenix as well. We’re told (all on good faith, of course) that the X-Engine is a powerful new set of dev tools designed to specifically work for the upcoming Xbox 720 or Project Phoenix. Then, of course, we have Project Natal, Microsoft’s motion controller technology that’s come under a severe beating since it’s E3 showing when hawk-eyed journalists picked out the “smoke and mirrors” of Lionhead Studios’ Milo. Time and again, I’ve come across these stories. Whether it be the Xbox 720 as a brand new platform or Project Natal combined with the 360 to make…a brand new platform. Now, I’m not going to offer counter-theories and what not, or even refute the rumours that have spread willy-nilly. Rather, I’d just like to poise the following questions. No biggies or mind-benders so relax.
Assuming we’re going by the principle of a new console every five years – are the returns (keeping in mind the balance between production cost and revenue) on either the Xbox 360 or even the Playstation 3 as great as, say, the Playstation 2 to justify a brand new console in 2010?
The Playstation 3 introduced it’s own brand of motion controller (the Playstation Wand) to be used in conjunction witht the Playstation Eye. Why is this not considered the Playstation 4? For that matter, if Natal is little-more than a “rip-off” of the Playstation Eye, why was the PS3 equipped with the Eye never called the PS4? Is it because it’s still a PS3 on the inside? The architecture of the Nintendo Wii and Gamecube are virtually the same. So why is the Wii considered a new console but the PS3 with motion controls is not?
Speaking in Sony terms: Why is the PSP Go considered a new handheld (the PSP2, as many were so nice to call it) with a few new features but the PS3 with a feature announced on centre-stage at E3 2009 is still called a PS3?
We talk about the development of next generation titles. For instance, The Sixth Axis reported how, “10 percent of Ubisoft’s workforce is working on developing games for the next generation of game systems that will eventually replace [the] Wii, [the] Xbox 360 and Sony’s PlayStation 3.” Now, any one would look at this, and say, “Well Ravi, there’s your proof right there. The next-gen consoles are coming”. To which I put forth the following questions: Why only 10%? Leave aside the fact that almost every major technology company, gaming and non-gaming, has a Research and Development (R&D) department that specializes in future computing. If the gaming consoles of tomorrow are literally hitting us then, shouldn’t their development be given equal, if not greater, precendence than the current generation? Okay, if not that much, then at least more than 10%?
Investigations behind Natal have been revealing, but no one will deny it was buggy and incomplete. Calling it “smoke and mirrors” or an “elaborate fraud” doesn’t change the fact that it still exists. So how long would it take to perfect this kind of technology? And how long after could you then make games for it?
Companies are merging (Mythic and BioWare). Buy-outs are the big thing (id Software bought by ZeniMax). Lay-offs still haven’t cooled down. The economy is still extremely fragile and will adversely affect the launch of a new console (remember when the Gamecube launched shortly after 9/11?). It’s understandable that companies have plans for the future. But plans are adjustable, in the long-term. Pushing forward a new console’s release by five years, for example. This may seem like forever to us gamers, but for a Microsoft or Sony it’s business as usual. How sane is it to launch a new console so soon, especially when you thump your chest on a daily basis as to how “future-proof” your console is? And then to tell your customers they’ll need to shell out cash for it? And then to tell your developers to put everything else aside and commence developent, stat?
Finally, the Nintendo Wii – the progenitor of consoles with motion controls – made the Wiimote an integral part of the console. You had to have it to play games. Project Natal and the PS Wand are add-ons, meaning there are games that don’t require having them to have fun. They are alternatives to an established console’s method of play. I’m sure there’ll be titles that support motion controls, but as long as a less complicated, less expensive and yet still extremely satisfactory alternative exists, will the titles that offer support exceed those that don’t?
7 Responses to “A New Xbox by 2010 and Unquestioned Speculation: Now With Questioning!”
Xbox 720 = Xbox 360 with built in Natal. = new machine
PS3 = PS3 (same machine) + wand
Wii = Wii + Motion Plus
Whether console makers are ready for a new console is a good question. Sony has made it pretty clear they are not. I don’t remember all of the 10 year lifespan when PS2 was selling a ton. At the same time they did start on the PS3 later than Microsoft started on the 360.
But there were other motives for the current generation to start when it did. Microsoft was getting reamed by Nvidia and Intel(both are begging to work with MS again now). Again MS might be in a rush again. They would love to leave RRoD behind them. A redesign or a whole new console has to be on the way for that reason alone. Maybe both. MS is making money on 360 and there is no reason to drop it. But Sony is in financial trouble and it is in Microsoft’s interest to press them. Bringing out a new console would make Sony bring out a new console to keep up.
It would be cheap to bring out a new Xbox that is far more powerful than the PS3. Not allowing Sony to make money from gaming may make them re-evaluate whether or not they want to remain in the gaming business. Both companies could bring out consoles based on their current CPUs to keep cost down. Add RAM, better GPUs and bigger hard drives and you have vastly more powerful machines, without the major cost of a totally new machine. But I don’t believe Sony wants to do it anyway. I believe they want to get away from the Cell processor.
I Continue to see people saying that Sony wants to get rid of the cell. With the position that they are in they have to stay with it. They are too heavily invested into it. On top of that, if they toss the cell they have develop something new which may be even more difficult than the cell. By staying with the cell, they can continue to improve upon the dev tools and possibly allow third party studios better support.
I believe it was IBM that said Sony had dropped their support for the Cell. Sony has been rumored to be interested in Larabee. IBM and Toshiba have continued research on increasing the number of cores in the Cell. Sony decided to drop it. I would agree that it was in their best interest to continue to use it. They could have made changes based on what they had learned and it would have been better for them. They should have learned from Microsoft’s mistake when dealing with IBM.
Suntzu
Here is an article about Sony dropping Cell support. Toshiba plans to use it in televisions. They displayed a model that could produce 10 or 12 1080p TV signal at once. The plan to make it a consumer electronics chip to be used in many products.
Sony’s problem was not understanding the abilities of the Cell. They originally thought they wouldn’t even need a graphics card. That’s why they basically got an off the self card instead of one made to work with the Cell. It made the PS3 more expensive, along with Blu-ray, and in the process put Sony in a position where they have to pick and choose their projects.
Okay, here is the article.
http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/sony-giving-up-on-cell-chip-rd/18498/
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